Tropical Pacific Ocean is Now in ENSO Neutral State
The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña), marking the end of the 2021–2022 La Nina.
There are three phases of ENSO, i.e. El Niño, La Niña and neutral phase.
During El Niño phase, Fiji usually experience drier than normal conditions while in the La Niña phase wetter than normal rainfall conditions is experienced.
In the neutral state, Fiji experiences rainfall conditions that is neither too wet nor too dry.
The 2021–2022 La Niña started in early December 2021 and concluded in late June 2022.
The ENSO neutral state in the tropical Pacific Ocean started in later half of June 2022 when most of the atmospheric and oceanographic indicators had reached neutral levels, that’s when a transition from La Niña to ENSO neutral state was made.
Although Fiji is now in an ENSO neutral phase, Fiji may continue to feel the impact of the past La Niña event for another 2 to 6 months due to the lag effects.
Therefore, occasional La Niña like rainfall patterns are likely to be observed in some parts of the Fiji Group, despite the fact that we are already in the Dry Season.
Meanwhile, the 2021–2022 La Niña was less active due to lack of strong establishment of oceanographic (Sea Surface Temperatures and Sub-surface temperatures) and atmospheric (Southern Oscillation Index, Trade Winds and Cloudiness) indicators in the tropical Pacific in comparison with 2020–2021 La Niña which had a clear and strong coupling of oceanographic and atmospheric indicators.
The 2021–2022 La Niña event was also less active in terms of the rainfall activity when compared with the 2020–2021 La Niña.
The La Niña event is expected to return in the later part of 2022 as most climate models indicate 50 percent chance of its reformation.
For further queries, you can contact our Climate Services Division on +679 9905376| +679 4888 or send an email to climate@met.gov.fj.
